Stephanie G. Mathis Suppose Beijing can convince its neighbors that it is the leader of the region (including in its claims to the South China Sea). In that case, China will be able to reduce US influence dramatically in an area where over half the world’s population resides.
It is not surprising that this desire should arise in Beijing. It is not surprising that this desire would emerge in Beijing.
Chinese initiative and US resistance
In order to gain regional support, China launched a number of high-profile initiatives involving its neighbors. These include the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the Confidence Building in Asia security framework, as well as economic corridors that pass through Pakistan, Myanmar, and the Indian Ocean.
Beijing’s attempts have been criticized as “checkbook diplomacy“, and China is accused of trying to buy friends. If successful, China’s efforts will contribute to a more Sinocentric Asia.
The New Silk Road Economic Belt is China’s biggest project. It is also known as One Belt One Road. This proposed economic route will span Eurasia and connect China to the Middle East, Europe, and the rest of the world.
One Belt One Road is said to include Chinese investments between US$ 800 billion and US$ 1 trillion, covering nearly 900 projects in over 60 partner countries. This is a truly massive initiative. commentators have compared the policy to the Marshall Plan of 1948 that helped rebuild Europe after World War II.
US response to China’s initiative has taken two different paths. The US first tried to stop the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank by , and then it pushed other countries to not join. The United Kingdom, a key US ally, was the first to leave the ranks. The bank has 50 members now, including US allies around the globe.
The Trans-Pacific Partnership was also promoted by US policymakers. This is a trade agreement that links the United States with Japan, Malaysian, Vietnam, Singapore and Brunei as well as Australia, New Zealand Canada, Mexico, Chile, and Peru. It will be the first tangible manifestation of President Barack Obama’s “pivot towards Asia,” which so far has been little more than mere rhetoric.
China, which was excluded from TPP, responded with Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, which excludes the United States and would promote rapprochement of Beijing and Tokyo. The RCEP contains a wide range of rules relating to investment, economic and technological cooperation, intellectual properties, competition, dispute resolution, and government regulations.
Allies who are exceptional
The US-China rivalry for influence in Asia is why Washington was alarmed when Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte declared a “separation from the United States. Duterte has been using a lot more rhetoric than usual since he was elected. This is despite the fact that his country’s decades-long partnership with Washington has come under scrutiny.
Najib Razak, Malaysia’s prime minister, announced a month later that he had purchased coastal patrol vessels from China. This seemed to be a sign of rapprochement between Beijing and Kuala Lumpur. It is the first significant defense contract between Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia and Beijing. This signal is important because the US also wanted a deal to be made with Malaysia.
The Philippines and Malaysia both claim islands and reefs that are disputed in the South China Sea. Washington hoped to use the tension in the South China Sea to create an alliance that would contain Beijing and put international pressure against China.
Najib Razak, Malaysia’s prime minister, visited China at the beginning of November. Jason Lee/Reuters
The Philippines is the sole South China Sea claimant who is and a US treaty allie. The two countries have recently signed the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement which allows Washington access to five Philippines’ military sites.
There are a few reasons why Malaysia and the Philippines can be considered outliers. They have reasons for tilting towards Beijing which are not applicable to other US allies.
US criticism has been directed at Duterte’s controversial “war on drugs”, which involves systematic violations of human rights. Najib, the Malaysian prime minister, has come under intense pressure since US investigations exposed a massive fraud by 1MDB a state investment trust.
What is the next step?
Remember that pro-China words don’t always translate into actions. Malaysia conducts military drills with Beijing but still has stronger ties to Washington. Except for North Korea, Laos, and Cambodia, China’s neighbors remain closer to Washington.
The United States is still far more popular among Asians than China, as evidenced by the much larger number of Asians that aspire to live in the United States rather than the Middle Kingdom.
The US plan for maintaining strong political influence in Asia, and building alliances to contain China, faces major obstacles. Many US allies do not trust one another (for example, Japan and South Korea). This can lead to collective-action problems such as “Free-riding“, where actors take advantage of public goods while not contributing.
In addition, the economic dependence of many countries in this region on China has reduced their willingness to criticize Beijing. Despite the fact that they would rather oppose China than support it due to its close proximity and ambitions for regional leadership, many countries in the region are less willing to do so.
The Trans-Pacific Partnership will not be supported by the president-elect Donald Trump. China’s initiatives are entangled with the economies of the region, so time is on Beijing’s side.
Most likely, countries in the region will opt for a hedging approach. They will maintain the United States as an ally on security grounds while benefiting from greater economic integration with China.
If they play their cards correctly, some of them, like Vietnam and the Philippines, could be the biggest beneficiaries. Duterte may be trying to get more security guarantees from America while also obtaining Chinese aid.
